Why 68% of Companies Can't Trust Their Sales Forecasts

When leaders can’t see what’s happening in the pipeline, forecasts become guesswork. 

Why Forecasting Fails Before the Forecast Ever Begins 

Sales forecasting remains one of the most persistent challenges for revenue leaders. Despite advances in CRM systems, analytics, and forecasting tools, 68% of sales leaders report that their sales forecasts are inaccurate or unreliable, according to Salesforce. 

If you’ve ever felt uncertain about whether your team will hit its number this quarter, you’re not alone. This isn’t the exception. It’s the norm. 

When leaders can’t clearly see what’s happening in the pipeline, forecasts become educated guesses, not management tools. 

And contrary to popular belief, this isn’t a forecasting problem. It’s a visibility problem. 

Why Most Sales Teams are Flying Blind 

Our State of Sales data reveals a hard truth about modern sales organizations: 

• 78% of sales teams do not have sales metrics that are clearly defined and understood across the entire team.  

• 64% of sales leaders lack real-time visibility into current sales performance. 

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When teams don’t agree on what to measure, and leadership can’t see activity as it happens, organizations are forced to manage in hindsight. 

What that looks like in practice: 

• Forecasts become assumptions 

• Course corrections happen too late 

• Quarter-end scrambles become routine 

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Sales teams are working. Calls are being made. Deals are moving forward. But when those activities aren’t tracked consistently and reviewed with discipline, leaders are navigating by instinct instead of insight. 

And instinct doesn’t scale. 

It’s Not About More Data. It’s About the Right Data. 

Accurate forecasting doesn’t require tracking everything. It requires tracking the activities that actually move deals forward. 

Sales organizations with stronger forecast accuracy share one common trait: they focus on a small number of high-impact activities and track them consistently. 

Typically, those include: 

• Discovery calls completed 

• Demos or presentations delivered 

• Proposals sent 

• Next steps clearly confirmed 

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The goal isn’t to create more reports or overwhelm teams with metrics. It’s to align the organization around the few actions that reliably advance opportunities through the pipeline.  

When logged consistently in the CRM, leaders gain a clear, real-time view of pipeline health, enabling earlier course correction, more confident forecasting, and better decision-making. 

It’s tracking discipline. 

The Tracking Reset That Changes Everything 

Knowing what to track is only half the battle. Most organizations struggle with something else entirely: consistent execution. 

This is where tracking breaks down. 

Many companies invest in a CRM, but never fully adopt it. When usage is optional, data quality erodes, forecasts lose credibility, and leaders stop trusting the numbers in front of them. 

When CRM usage is enforced and reinforced through leadership expectations, the opposite happens. 

Research from Nucleus Research shows that companies can see an $8 return for every $1 spent on CRM when the system is used as intended. The value doesn’t come from the software itself.  

It comes from: 

• Consistent data entry 

• Standardized activity definitions 

• Regular review and reinforcement 

  
  

High-performing organizations don’t wait until the end of the quarter to ask what went wrong. They review activity trends weekly and adjust forecasts proactively, while outcomes can still be influenced. 

The goal isn’t to explain missed numbers. It’s to see them coming early enough to act. 

What Gets Measured and Rewarded Gets Done 

Tracking alone isn’t enough. Without accountability, activity data becomes noise. 

High-performing sales organizations connect KPIs directly to compensation. When sales reps understand that logged activities influence their earnings, behavior changes quickly. 

Calls get logged. Demos get documented. Pipelines become real. 

Right now, fewer than half of sales leaders report high confidence in their forecasts. That lack of confidence isn’t driven by market volatility alone. 

It’s driven by inconsistent measurement and unclear expectations. 

Industry research consistently shows that organizations with more accurate forecasts are more likely to achieve predictable, year-over-year revenue growth. The difference isn’t better salespeople or better luck. 

It’s what leaders choose to define, track, and reinforce, consistently. 

When leaders clearly define what matters, track it consistently, and tie it directly to compensation, behavior changes. Forecast confidence follows, not because conditions improve, but because execution does. 

Start With Three Activities 

Improving forecast accuracy doesn’t require a massive overhaul. It requires focus. 

Here’s how to start: 

1. Pick three core sales activities this week 

2. Make logging them non-negotiable 

3. Review the data every Friday 

4. Adjust your forecast based on what you see, not what you hope 

   
   

Teams that do this stop scrambling at quarter-end. They start leading. 

Forecast accuracy won’t reach 100% overnight. But it will improve. And that improvement compounds quarter after quarter. 

Final Thought 

The question isn’t whether organizations can afford better tracking discipline. 

It’s whether leaders can afford to run a revenue engine without visibility into execution. 

When sales activity is visible, forecasting becomes grounded in reality. When it isn’t, even the best tools and processes fall short.

As a Fractional Sales Leader with Sales Xceleration, I am an expert at putting the structure, discipline, and systems in place to drive predictable growth.